Towards a method for qualitative and quantitative assessment of humanitarian disaster demand forecast

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Hola anexo les dejo mi último trabajo presentado en el 4th World conference Production & Operations Management, llevado a cabo en Holanda.


Humanitarian Supply Chains have received a lot of attention over the last fifteen years, and can now be considered a new research area. But a gap exists between the research work proposals and their application on the field. One of the main issues is that the demand, in case of humanitarian disaster, is particularly hard to assess because of the high level of uncertainty. Consequently, too many academic propositions are still purely theoretical. Gathering knowledge about future demand is thus of prime importance to be able to propose models, which are easy and relevant to implement for a real problem. This paper tackles this problematic by proposing a 2 steps methodology that be able to forecast roughly the future needs in terms of humanitarian relief operations. This contribution is based on simple regression and above all, on vulnerability ratio calculation. A numerical example based on the case of Peruvian earthquakes is finally presented.

Full paper here; 20131113-vargasetal_pom_wc_2012.pdf.

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