Archivo por meses: febrero 2014

Towards a Demand Forecast Methodology for Recurrent Disasters

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Hola a continuación les dejo mi última investigación presentada en la 3rd International Conference on Disaster Management and Human Health: Reducing Risk, Improving Outcomes, en la Coruña, España.

Abstract;

Humanitarian Supply Chains have received a lot of attention over the last fifteen years, and can now be considered a new research area. But a gap exists between the research work proposals and their applications on the field. One of the main issues is that the demand, in case of disaster, is hard to assess because of the high-level of uncertainty. Gathering knowledge about future demand is prime importance to be able to propose models, which are relevant to implement for a real problem. This paper tackles this problematic proposing a four-step methodology for forecast disaster impact, and by this way the future demand, such as Cyclones in Caribbean or Earthquakes along the Pacific Ring of Fire. This approach uses data analysis techniques such as Principal Component Analysis and Multivariate Regression Analysis. An application case on Peruvian earthquakes demand is proposed to illustrate the benefits of our approach.

Full paper here: 20140210-paper_dm_2013.pdf

 

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