Eclectic: Temas, eventos, cosas graciosas, recuerdos, suspicacias y otros mangos
Defense Ministry: Chinese army resolute in safeguarding national sovereignty.
China’s Ministry of National Defense on Thursday repeated its resolute opposition to a patrol by the USS Lassen near islands and reefs of China’s Nansha Islands in the South China Sea. The Military said it “has both the will and capability to tackle the issue, and will take measures needed.”
https://youtu.be/HWz6twbeYMc
In: CCTV
Imagen: http://www.puranoticia.cl/noticias/site/artic/20150926/imag/foto_0000000120150926155839.jpg
China concederá a Bolivia un crédito de 7,000 millones de dólares para financiar proyectos de infraestructura y energía eléctrica, entre otros, informó el presidente boliviano, Evo Morales.
El mandatario hizo el anuncio durante la inauguración de una sede sindical en Santa Cruz (este) tras recibir la noticia mediante una llamada del vicepresidente, Álvaro García Linera, que ha estado tres días de visita oficial en el país asiático con el fin de estrechar la relación bilateral y reactivar las inversiones. García Linera “nos informa desde China que está garantizado un crédito de 7,000 millones de dólares (de) China para Bolivia para caminos, energía eléctrica y también ferrocarril”, anunció Morales.
Una vez ejecutados los proyectos de ese crédito, China se comprometió a estudiar otro por valor de hasta 10.000 millones de dólares, añadió. “Ahora de Bolivia, con su estabilidad económica, nadie desconfía”, remarcó el gobernante.
Entre los proyectos que serán financiados con el crédito del país asiático, Morales citó la carretera entre Santa Rosa de la Roca (en el departamento de Santa Cruz) y Remanso (en la región amazónica de Beni), de 500 kilómetros.
También mencionó la construcción de una línea férrea entre Motacusico y Puerto Busch, asimismo en Santa Cruz y a cuya licitación concurrieron cuatro empresas chinas.
La visita del vicepresidente boliviano a China concluyó hoy después de tres días en los que, entre otras actividades, se reunió con su homólogo chino, Li Yuanchao, y el viceprimer ministro Zhang Gaoli, con quienes trató sobre el estado de las relaciones bilaterales. Este año se cumplen 30 años del establecimiento de relaciones entre ambos países.
En: economiahoy
KUNMING, Oct. 12 (Xinhua) — The Chinese and Indian armies started joint anti-terrorism training on Monday in Kunming, capital of southwest China’s Yunnan Province.
A total of 144 Chinese and 144 Indian servicemen are taking part in the training, scheduled to run until Oct. 23.
It has three phases: armament display and military demonstration, troop training and integrated exercises.
The armament display includes light weapons and equipment for military engineering and logistics, while the demonstration will feature shooting, group tactics and unarmed combat.
In the second phase, troops will be trained in combat, anti-terrorism tactics, humanitarian aid and disaster-relief communication. The integrated exercise will see the two sides drill a joint maneuver.
Zhou Xiaozhou, deputy commander of the People’s Liberation Army Chengdu Military Area Command, said the exercise aims to improve China-India military communication and enhance mutual trust.
It does not target a third party and is not related to regional events, according to Zhou.
The drill is the fifth of its kind between the two countries’ armies, and the third held in China.
In: xinhuanet
China’s top newspaper on Tuesday accused both the United States and Russia of replaying their Cold War rivalry by engaging in military action in Syria, saying they needed to realize that era is over and should instead push for peace talks.
Rebel fighters carry their weapons as they head toward their positions in the town of Kafr Nabudah, in Hama province, Syria, on which forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad are carrying out offensives to take control of the town, October 11, 2015. REUTERS/AMMAR ABDULLAH
A frame grab taken from footage released by Russia’s Defence Ministry October 9, 2015, shows a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber dropping a bomb in the air over Syria. REUTERS/MINISTRY OF DEFENCE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS
The People’s Daily, the official paper of China’s ruling Communist Party, said in a commentary that the United States and Russia seemed to be using Syria as a proxy for diplomatic and military competition, as during the Cold War.
“The United States and the Soviet Union used all sorts of diplomatic, economic and military actions on the soil of third countries, playing tit-for-tat games to increase their influence – it’s an old scene from the Cold War,” the newspaper wrote in a commentary.
“But we’re in the 21st century now, and people need to get their heads around this!,” it added.
While China generally votes with fellow permanent United Nations Security Council member Russia on the Syria issue, it has expressed concern about interference in Syria’s internal affairs and repeatedly called for a political solution.
Russia last month began striking targets in Syria in a dramatic escalation of foreign involvement in the civil war. This has been criticized by the West as an attempt to prop up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, rather than its purported aim of attacking Islamic State.
The United States and its allies have also been carrying out air strikes in Syria against Islamic State, and have supported opposition groups fighting Assad.
The People’s Daily said nobody should stand by while Syria becomes a proxy war, and efforts to reach a peaceful settlement to the crisis should not slacken.
“The international community, especially large countries with much influence, must fully recognize the critical, urgent necessity to reach a political solution to the Syria issue,” it said.
The commentary was published under the pen name “Zhong Sheng”, meaning “Voice of China”, often used to give views on foreign policy.
China, a low-key diplomatic player in the Middle East despite its dependence on the region for its oil, has repeatedly warned that military action cannot end the crisis.
(Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Richard Borsuk)
In: reuters
To help build “the rule of law”, China is demoting judges
Image: http://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full-width/images/print-edition/20150926_CND001_0.jpg
“I WAS tired of it. I did not like the pressure, so I chose freedom.” This is how a former Chinese judge describes his decision to quit as president of a provincial court and take up a new job in academia. It would have helped if he had earned more. A judge with years of court experience makes as much as a well-paid college graduate—a fraction of what a lawyer could earn, or a law professor who does freelance work on the side. Hence many of China’s best-qualified court officials are quitting. The government, eager to show that it is building “rule of law”, is struggling to stop the haemorrhage.
Official statistics would seem to suggest that China is not short of judges. There are said to be around 200,000 of them, or more than 14 per 100,000 inhabitants. Each Chinese court has an average of around 60. By comparison, litigious America has 11 judges per 100,000 citizens. But in China many of those described as judges work in administrative roles, and many do not have law degrees. Well-qualified judges have thus found their caseloads soaring—but not their pay. They still earn the same as back-office colleagues who also, inappropriately, enjoy the title of judge. To the chagrin, no doubt, of some, President Xi Jinping’s fierce campaign against corruption, launched when he came to power three years ago, has reduced opportunities for taking backhanders.
Mr Xi’s anti-graft drive is part of a campaign to convince a cynical public that the Communist Party is bound by the law and wants it to be applied fairly. To achieve this, he is trying to reform the courts to allow justice to be dispensed more swiftly and impartially. Officials have been threatened with punishment if they interfere with cases. The pay of proper judges will be boosted substantially. The size of the increase has not been made public, but it is expected to be at least 50% at first. And their status will, in effect, be enhanced by downgrading the titles of lesser judges.
Not so easy
At a meeting of court officials in July, a deputy chief of the Supreme Court, Shen Deyong, said there would be “a series of challenges and difficulties” in implementing reforms. But he said that targets for sifting the ranks of judges would be strictly enforced. He ordered courts to begin evaluating their staff to see who should make the grade. In Shanghai, courts have been ordered to retain only a third of their judges. The rest are to be given new, more fitting, titles, such as “legal assistant” and “administrative officer”.
Given the heavy-handed way Mr Xi has tightened his personal grip on the levers of power, suppressed the media and intimidated independent lawyers, it is easy to doubt his commitment to the rule of law. But Susan Finder, an expert on China’s legal system based in Hong Kong, says that the reforms are nonetheless making a difference. The majority of court cases, she notes, do not touch on politically sensitive issues of the kind that independent lawyers often like to take up, such as abuses of power by local officials. It is therefore possible to improve the judiciary (not least in the eyes of the public) without threatening the party’s grip on power.
In political cases, few doubt the party will continue to put its thumb on the scales of justice. It does this through “political and legal committees” which co-ordinate the work of the police, prosecutors and judiciary at every level. The power of these committees reached a peak under Zhou Yongkang, who was the leader of the party’s most powerful body of this kind between 2007 and his retirement in 2012. Despite the recent sentencing of Mr Zhou to life imprisonment in a sensational corruption case, there is no sign that Mr Xi wants to abolish the committees—even if he would like to reduce their involvement in the decision-making of courts.
In civil and commercial cases, officials often interfere to protect their own interests, or those of friends or family. This causes much public resentment and is the main reason why thousands of petitioners head to Beijing every year to seek redress from the central government—a potential cause of social unrest that alarms the authorities. Last month measures were enacted that prohibit courts from heeding requests from “any organisation or individual” that would impede judicial fairness. Courts must now record and report promptly and fully on such requests, even oral ones, “so that the entire process leaves a trail, permanently preserved”.
To shield courts further from interference, responsibility for judges’ salaries and job assignments will shift from governments at the same level to higher-level ones. These are considered less likely to have a stake in the verdicts.
The reforms should greatly improve the working environment for those judges who keep their titles, as should the increase in salaries. That they are urgently needed is evident: in Shanghai alone, according to state media, 86 judges resigned last year—half of them with advanced degrees in law. The majority were younger judges who were among the system’s most highly prized. Between January and the end of March, another 18 had quit, amid double-digit growth in the number of cases being handled by the city’s courts.
As the title adjustments get under way, those who fail to make the cut will face a difficult choice: stay on with their diminished status or seek employment elsewhere. Coming out on the losing end of the evaluation process may not be a stellar credential. But the value of their powerful connections should still be worth something in the job market.
From the print edition: China
In: economist.com
Blogger’s opinion: I don’t think so, because ghost cities are only a a phase of the urbanization process in China. See: The “ghost towns”, the paradoxical strategy of Chinese urbanization.
These vacant apartments in the Pujiang area of Shanghai appear to be unwanted supply for non-existing demand but they’re actually new homes for residents who were evicted from the World Expo site. WADE SHEPARD FOR REUTERS
Nearly 150,000 Syrian refugees have already claimed asylum in Europe and tens of thousands more are flooding the borders in search of places to live. Meanwhile, in China, there are millions of new apartments sitting completely empty and entire sections of freshly constructed cities that are virtually uninhabited. This disparity between unmet housing need and oversupply has not been lost on many around the world, and after writing a book about China’s ghost cities, I’ve recently found my email inbox getting flooded with suggestions such as this:
Do you think the Ghost Cities could be used, even as a temporary situation, to accommodate those displaced from Syria? It seems that many of the cities are just waiting for a community and here is a community that needs a city.
This sentiment is widespread across popular social media platforms, and on Twitter alone roughly 7 out of 10 results for searches pertaining to China’s ghost cities reveal tweets recommending the mass movement of Syrian refugees to these under-populated urban terrains.
Creative solution? Chinese ghost cities, meet #SyrianRefugees – Imagine a world like that… @WhiteHouse http://t.co/yCYuiXMPND
— Matthew MacMillan (@MattMacMillan) September 15, 2015
Really believe the Refugees fleeing the War.could be moved to the Ghost Cities of China.ready for Maybe Millions https://t.co/A7grc1G43c
— greedalitism365 (@Greedalitism365) September 14, 2015
Realistically speaking, this suggestion isn’t worth analyzing with much depth. The political quagmire of relocating masses of people across the planet — not to mention the fact that refugees need more than just housing — means that this is a far greater ordeal than simply assuaging demand with supply. It does shed light, though, on the gulf that exists between the predominant international opinion on China’s so-called ghost cities and their present reality.
Even though there are between 20 and 45 million unoccupied homes across China, which account for roughly 600 million square meters of uninhabited floor space — enough to completely cover Madrid — these places are not the urban wastelands they are often posited to be. While many of China’s new cities and urban districts are deficient in people they are not deficient in owners. Nearly every apartment that goes on the market in China is quickly purchased, often at exorbitant prices that commonly range into the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Far from being unwanted infrastructure that could seamlessly be doled out to refugees, those arrays of vacant high-rises are actually the proud possessions of people who paid a lot of money for them.
So why would anyone spend incredible amounts of cash on houses they do not intent to use?
All over the world, the value of property extends beyond the utilitarian function of being a place to live. Real estate is also a vital economic entity that presents an avenue for investment as well as a way of storing wealth — a use of property that is taken to the extreme in China. “Many Chinese investors are buying property based on expectations of appreciation, and that it is a solid, safe investment that they can easily understand,” said Mark Tanner, the founding director of China Skinny, a Shanghai based marketing research firm.
A full 39 percent of individual wealth in China is kept in housing, and, according to Nomura, 21 percent of China’s urban households possess more than one home. The reasons for this desire to invest in housing often results from a lack of better options. China’s banks pay negative interest and are becoming even more unattractive with the recent wave of currency devaluation. Wealth management products are not fully developed and are highly regulated by the government, and the stock market is viewed to be about as secure as a casino.
A huge portion of the homes that are purchased in China function very much like stocks or a trade-able commodity. As an incredible number of new apartments are sold as unfinished concrete cavities without any interior fit out or even windows, they are in no way immediately livable. Strange as it may seem, they are very actively bought and sold in this bare-bones form. In fact, investors often prefer them that way. In many ways they are purely economic entities, quantifiable placeholders of value that are traded on the open market akin to precious metals. Just as one doesn’t need to mold a piece of gold into something usable, like a piece of jewelry, for it to have value and an economic function, an apartment in China doesn’t need to have people living in it for it to be economically viable.
“Empty units leave flexibility for quick sales in a changing market or need to cash in quickly,” said Barry Wilson, the founding director of Barry Wilson Project Initiatives, a Hong Kong-based urban design firm.
Another reason for the sheer number of unused apartments in China is the fact that there is often little financial incentive for owners to do anything with them after purchase. There is no yearly property tax in China, so vacant properties are not a financial drain on their owners. While the potential returns that could be had from renting them out (1 percent or so) is often not worth the hassle — especially because it costs tens of thousands of dollars to construct the interiors of new apartments in preparation for tenants. This is combined with the fact that Chinese homeowners, especially investors who have multiple properties, are remarkably un-leveraged. According to Mark Tanner, over 80 percent of homes in China are owned outright. This means that most homeowners, especially the big investors with multiple properties, generally don’t have any mortgages to pay off or any other leans, so there isn’t as much financial pressure to make a profit from these homes in the short term.
Additionally many empty apartments have owners who intend to occupy them at some point. A huge number of China’s new apartments are located in new development areas, which are, by definition, new. The thinking is if you buy property in these emerging new areas early, you can get a better price. So it’s common for people to purchase homes in places that are not yet ready to support a large population with the understanding that they won’t be able to inhabit them for many years. As these new urban developments grow and evolve, more and more people eventually move into their homes. According to a report by Standard Chartered, between 2012 and 2014 the occupancy rate of Zhengzhou’s Zhengdong New District — prominently featured in a 60 Minutes segment on ghost cities — doubled, while the population in Zhenjiang’s Dantu district quadrupled, and occupancy in Changzhou’s new Wujin district increased more than twofold. As new areas develop, the facilities, institutions, infrastructure and businesses they need to be attractive to residents, vacant homes begin filling up as ghost cities come alive.
So, while China may have tens of millions of empty apartments, it doesn’t mean that they don’t serve an economic function, it doesn’t mean that they are unwanted, and it definitely doesn’t mean that they are just laying out in some urban no-mans-lands ripe for the taking.
In: reuters
La OCDE revisó hoy sus perspectivas de crecimiento para la economía mundial ligeramente a la baja para este año y de forma algo más pronunciada para 2016, por debilidad de algunos países emergentes.
Imagen en DW
En su informe interino de septiembre, la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económico (OCDE) prevé que la economía mundial crecerá un 3,0 por ciento este año y un 3,6 por ciento el próximo. La entidad redujo sus previsiones remitiéndose principalmente a la ralentización en las economías de países emergentes como China y Brasil.
La OCDE incrementó no obstante sus estimaciones sobre la expansión de la economía estadounidense hasta el 2,4 %, cuatro décimas más de lo que había augurado en junio. Para el 2016, en cambio, rebajó levemente las expectativas.
La eurozona
También revisó positivamente, pero de forma más tímida (una décima más que antes del verano), sus cálculos sobre la zona euro hasta el 1,6 % gracias a la evolución más favorable en algunos de los países más afectados por la crisis financiera.
A pesar de eso, la zona euro sigue en baja forma. Los autores del estudio consideran que se habría podido esperar una tasa de progresión más elevada teniendo en cuenta una serie de factores muy beneficiosos, como el bajo del precio del petróleo, la depreciación del euro y unos tipos de interés bajos a largo plazo.
China preocupa
China se perfila como la principal fuente de preocupación si su ralentización es más acusada de lo esperado. La OCDE estima que, después del 7,4 % en 2014, su PIB subirá un 6,7 % este año (es decir una décima menos de lo previsto en junio) y un 6,5 % en 2016 (dos décimas menos).
Si esa desaceleración fuera más pronunciada y estuviera acompañada de turbulencias financieras en reacción a posibles subidas de tipos de interés (especialmente en Estados Unidos), eso podría tener repercusiones sobre la economía global, y en particular sobre algunos de los otros emergentes.
Brasil en problemas
De entrada, hay dos de ellos -fuertemente dependientes de las exportaciones de materias primas, cuyos precios se han hundido- que están sufriendo recesiones: Rusia y Brasil. En el caso de Brasil, los autores del informe prevén un descalabro del PIB del 2,8 % en 2015, es decir, dos puntos de descenso más de lo que estimaban en junio. Además, ya no confían en una recuperación en 2016, sino en un nuevo recorte de la producción brasileña del 0,7 %.
El único que se salva de este escenario de empeoramiento entre los grandes emergentes es India, que debería mantener su expansión: el 7,2 % de 2014 se repetirá en 2015 y en 2016 (7,3 %).
ER (efe, Reuters)
En: DW
Existe un 15% de probabilidades de que la crisis sea una ‘recesión severa’
Imagen: economiahoy.mx
Los expertos de Citigroup han alertado en su último análisis de que la desaceleración económica de China puede llevar al mundo a una nueva recesión. En dicho informe, el economista jefe del gigante financiero estadounidense ha asegurado que hay un 55% de posibilidades de que se produzca una recesión global en los dos próximos años
Según los expertos del banco, sólo existe un 15% de probabilidades de que la nueva crisis alcance el nivel de ‘recesión severa’. Esta nueva recesión probaría que la estructura económica a nivel mundial está cambiando, mientras que las últimas crisis han nacido en EEUU está sería una recesión ‘Made in China’ con ayuda de los países emergentes.
Según los economistas de Citigroup una de las principales razones de preocupación es el ‘bajo’ crecimiento de China. El gigante asiático estaría creciendo al 4% interanual frente al objetivo del 7% marcado por el Gobierno. Además, otras economías emergentes como Rusia, Sudáfrica o Brasil ya están en serios problemas, mientras que el comportamiento de las economías desarrolladas está siendo mediocre. El precio de las materias primas, el comercio y la inflación son otra prueba de la desaceleración, mientras que los beneficios de las empresas también se están moderando.
Con este informe, Buiter nada contra la corriente de sus colegas de Goldman Sachs o JP Morgan, que han vaticinado que el aterrizaje chino no se notará con excesiva fuerza en las economías desarrolladas. También Societe Generale ha querido restar importancia a esta cuestión asegurando que la caída del precio del petróleo amortiguará el efecto China. Los expertos del banco francés creen que sólo hay un 10% de probabilidades de que el mundo entre en recesión los próximos años.
Los elevados niveles de endeudamiento en China restarán efecto a las políticas que se implementen desde el Banco Popular de China como recortes de los tipos de interés o reducciones del coeficiente de caja. Las autoridades se muestran reacias a la hora de permitir que el yuan se deprecie más, lo que también puede suponer un límite a la actuación monetaria.
¿Cómo será el contagio?
Según publica Bloomberg, Buiter cree que las heridas chinas pueden infectar al resto del mundo a través del comercio internacional. China supuso en 2013 el 14,3% de todos los flujos comerciales del mundo. Si China sigue reduciendo su ritmo de importaciones muchos países importantes en sus zonas de influencia geográfica pueden sufrir parones en la economía.
Porción del consumo mundial de China de algunas materias primas
(click to enlarge)
Imagen: economiahoy.mx
Por otro lado, el gigante asiático podría verse tentando a deshacer de parte de sus billones de dólares en activos extranjeros. Si China vende en masa sus activos financiero extranjeros, los mercados vivirán tiempos turbulentos, aseguran desde el portal financiero estadounidense.
Estos riesgos podrían ser amortiguados por las políticas fiscales y monetarias de los países desarrollados. Sin embargo, Buiter cree que estas economías se han quedado sin munición. Los tipos de interés de los bancos centrales están en mínimos históricos, mientras que los niveles de deuda pública de estos gobiernos han alcanzado niveles peligrosos.
“Hoy en día, los tipos de interés no pueden usarse como una herramienta monetaria en los mercados desarrollados, mientras que el espacio fiscal está severamente limitado, a diferencia de 2008, que había un gran margen”, explica el economista jefe de Citigroup.
Para culminar, Buiter asegura que “los economistas raras veces hablan de recesión, crisis, recuperación o burbujas, a menos que estos estén llegando… Creemos que este puede ser uno de esos momentos”.
En: economiahoy
Después de varias semanas de incertidumbre provenientes del gigante asiático, los inversores se mostraron optimistas en la rueda de hoy y todos los indicadores subieron más del 2%.
Wall Street ya se olvidó de China: el Dow Jones subió 2,42%
Luego de varias semanas de incertidumbre por las bruscas devaluaciones en China, los inversores de Wall Street recuperaron hoy el optimismo, y todos los indicadores de la plaza norteamericana terminaron con subas superiores al 2%.
El Dow Jones, el principal indicador, ganó un 2,42 % o 390,30 puntos, hasta las 16.492,68 unidades, todavía lejos del récord de 18.312,39 puntos del pasado 19 de mayo.
También subieron el selectivo S&P 500 y el índice compuesto del mercado Nasdaq, un 2,51 y un 2,73 %, respectivamente, con un avance que siguió la tendencia de los mercados bursátiles de Europa y de Asia, a excepción del japonés, que retrocedió.
La de hoy fue la primera sesión de la semana en Wall Street, después del largo fin de semana por el Día del Trabajo, pero los operadores llegaron al parqué con ganas de comprar, generando uno de los mayores impulsos de las últimas semanas.
Los analistas calificaron la sesión de hoy como un rebote respecto a los resultados de la semana pasada, cuando Wall Street tuvo la segunda peor semana del año, impactada por las repercusiones de los malos datos económicos de China.
Pero la atención de hoy estaba centrada en la reunión que sostendrá el 16 y 17 de septiembre el Comité de Mercado Abierto de la Reserva Federal (Fed), donde revisará el nivel de las tasas de interés, cercanas al 0 %.
Al respecto, el multimillonario Warren Buffett, el inversor más importante de Wall Street y que dice que en los próximos meses colocará unos 32.000 millones de dólares en el mercado, sostuvo que la Fed no debería ser “terriblemente agresiva”.
De hecho, minimizó la influencia de las medidas de la Fed para sus negocios y dijo que nunca ha adoptado una decisión en cuanto a sus inversiones de acuerdo con lo que dijera la Reserva Federal a corto o largo plazo, sino considerando el desempeño de las empresas cuyos títulos compra o vende.
En ese mismo sentido, la última hora de la sesión de hoy en Wall Street se vio afectada por declaraciones del economista jefe del Banco Mundial, Kaushik Basu, en las que recomendó a la Fed no revisar al alza las tasas de interés.
Según dijo Basu en una entrevista al Financial Times, un alza en las tasas de interés “no va a crear en sí una gran crisis, pero causará inmediatas turbulencias”, sobre todo teniendo en cuenta el impacto de la devaluación china del mes pasado.
FUENTE: Agencias
En: cronista.com