“Global energy use and supply – the main drivers of GHG
emissions – is projected to continue to grow, especially as
developing countries pursue industrialization. Should there be
no change in energy policies, the energy mix supplied to run
the global economy in the 2025–30 timeframe will essentially
remain unchanged, with more than 80% of energy supply based
on fossil fuels with consequent implications for GHG emissions.
On this basis, the projected emissions of energy-related CO2
in 2030 are 40–110% higher than in 2000, with two thirds
to three quarters of this increase originating in non-Annex I
countries, though per capita emissions in developed countries
will remain substantially higher, that is 9.6 tCO2/cap to
15.1 tCO2/cap in Annex I regions versus 2.8 tCO2/cap to
5.1 tCO2/cap in non-Annex I regions (high agreement, much
evidence) [1.3].
For 2030, projections of total GHG emissions (Kyoto gases)
consistently show an increase of 25–90% compared with 2000,
with more recent projections higher than earlier ones (high
agreement, much evidence)”.