Este año persistirá la presión al alza en el precio del dólar, aunque será menor a la del 2008 y con intervenciones del Banco Central de Reserva para atenuar la volatilidad cambiaria.
Así mismo, el gerente de Inversiones de Prima Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones, Alejandro Pérez-Reyes, indicó que en una situación de crisis como la actual, las personas en general tienden a irse al dólar.
Los bonos del Tesoro Norteamericano son vistos como activos refugio y esa mayor demanda de dólares a nivel mundial puede presionar a la baja el precio de la moneda local”, sostuvo.
Consideró que la reducción de los precios de los commodities en el exterior podría afectar las cuentas externas del país, lo que aunado a una posible reducción de las remesas, podría también presionar al alza el precio del dólar este año.
“Mientras haya crisis va a haber una presión a la baja en el precio de la moneda peruana, aunque no sería tan fuerte como en el 2008”, mencionó.
Precisó que la presión al alza que podría registrarse en el tipo de cambio este año, no implica necesariamente que vaya a haber una fuerte devaluación.
“El BCR ha venido interviniendo en el mercado cambiario vendiendo dólares y manejando la volatilidad, pero al mismo tiempo respetando la tendencia y dejando que la moneda local se devalúe”, anotó.
En ese sentido, mencionó que mientras haya crisis va a haber cierta presión hacia una devaluación controlada, aunque sin mayor volatilidad por las intervenciones del BCR.
“Perú tiene buenos fundamentos y está en una buena situación, por lo que cuando acabe la crisis internacional, o se clarifique el panorama, deberíamos tener una moneda fuerte”, estimó Pérez-Reyes.
Cabe indicar que el precio de cierre del dólar interbancario subió 4.73 por ciento en el año 2008, tras terminar en 3.141 nuevos soles, debido a la turbulencia financiera internacional que generó una mayor demanda de la divisa estadounidense, especialmente a partir de la segunda mitad del año pasado. (Con información de Andina)
Fuente: La República
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