¿Fraude electoral?

Hubiese querido no tener la necesidad, imperiosa e inclemente por cierto, de escribir estas líneas. Y no porque quisiera que Lourdes Flores gane las actuales elecciones metropolitanas. Tampoco porque desconfiase de la Onpe, entidad para la que trabaje en las, hoy lejanas, elecciones presidenciales del 2001 y que fueron ganadas por Alejandro Toledo sobre Alan García en 2da vuelta. Menos aún con la intención de fomentar el pánico o la incredulidad. Pero lo cierto es que estan sucediendo cosas muy extrañas en estas elecciones, además de la extrema lentitud con la que se van contabilizando los votos. Pero vayamos a los hechos concretos.

Según un análisis anterior que públique el 06 de Octubre daba por descontado que la ventaja de Susana Villarán era muy holgada y más que suficiente para decidir desde ya la contienda electoral. Ciertamente era un suposición basada en mis conocimientos de estadística tomados en la universidad. Sin embargo, debo reconocer que consideré un supuesto muy fuerte y no del todo exacto el cual era el hecho que la muestra analizada habría sido tomada al azar. Las tomas al azar garantizarían la uniformidad de la muestra para los análisis estadísticos y reducirían significativamente el margen de error. Sin embargo, a pesar del supuesto cuasi ausente, la muestra evaluada (73.346% del total de actas procesadas) era muy grande y representativa. Era casi imposible, pensaba yo, que en el resto de actas cambiase demasiado la tendencia o el porcentaje.

Claro, se podría decir que las actas que quedaban por revisar podrían favorecer mucho más a una candidata que a otra, pero es casi un misterio de donde provienen cada uno de esas actas. Por un lado Lourdes Flores menciona que tiene un colchon de votos de actas observadas en La Molina, Surco, San Isidro y Pueblo Libre que le permitirían revertir la tendencia mientras que Susana Villarán confía aumentar su ventaja con los votos que rescatará de Villa el Salvador, San Juan de Lurigancho, Comas, Independencia, Carabayllo, San Martín de Porres y El Agustino. Sin demasiadas conjeturas estoy seguro que la mayoría de actas observadas provienen de estos últimos populosos distritos. Y es claro entender por qué. Fuerza Social es un partido relativamente nuevo frente al PPC. El PPC por tanto tendría gente más experimentada en el tema de impugnar u observar actas. Y ciertamente la idea de los personeros, tanto de FS como del PPC era impugnar y observar actas que podrían favorecer a una u otra candidata. Como, sospecho yo, la mayoría de actas observadas provienen del cono norte, de distritos que tienen mayor simpatía por Susana Villarán, era de esperar que las actas observadas que se van procesando favorecerían lentamente a SV. En otras palabras los personeros de LF al observar actas que, suponemos, en su mayoría tenían votos para SV lo que buscaban era reducir en lo posible la ventaja que podría sacarle SV en sus distritos. Entonces es tambien de esperar que dichas actas una vez procedas empiecen a favorecer principalmente a SV aunque sea ligeramente. Pero no ha sido el caso, al menos hasta ahora.

En mi análisis anterior utilicé los siguientes datos:

Votos posibles = 4,339,798 (100%)
Votos emitidos = 3,751,350 (86.44%)
Votos validos = 3,425,020 (78.92%)
Votos SV = 1,318,563 (35.15% del total de votos emitidos)
Votos LF = 1,287,387 (34.32% del total de votos emitidos)
Diferencia = 31,176 (0.83% del total de votos emitidos)

Y al día de hoy tenemos los siguientes (sorprendentes) datos:

Votos posibles = 5,149,141 (100%)
Votos emitidos = 4,445,502 (86.33%)
Votos validos = 4,018,120 (78.03%)
Votos SV = 1,534,846 (34.53% del total de votos emitidos)
Votos LF = 1,527,002 (34.35% del total de votos emitidos)
Diferencia = 7,844 (0.18% del total de votos emitidos)

Para que se den estos resultados las actas observadas tuvieron que procesarse de la siguiente forma:

Votos procesados = 809,343 (100%)
Votos procesados emitidos =694,152 (85.77% guarda relación con los porcentajes anteriores)
Votos procesados validos =593,100 (73.28% no guarda relación con los porcentajes anteriores pero tiene sentido por ser de actas observadas)
Votos procesados SV = 216,283 (31.16% del total de votos procesados emitidos, no guarda relación con los porcentajes anteriores)
Votos procesados LF =239,615 (34.52% del total de votos procesados emitidos, guarda relación con los porcentajes anteriores)
Diferencia = 23,332 (3.36% del total de votos procesados emitidos, no guarda relación con los porcentajes anteriores)

Es razonable y entendible que el porcentaje de votos válidos disminuya considerablemente dado que la muestra proviene de actas observadas. Aquí no parece haber observación alguna. El porcentaje de votos blancos y nulos aumento ligeramente de 13.56% a 13.67%, lo cual quiere decir que las actas observadas procesadas tuvieron 14.23% de votos blancos y nulos, pero esto también se mantiene dentro de los rangos normales y razonables. Pero mi sorpresa es mayúscula cuando reviso los porcentajes de LF (34.52%) versus SV (31.16%). Esto quiere decir que LF ha mantenido su porcentaje (+0.20%) en la muestra pero SV ha caído considerablemente (-3.99%). Es decir SV casí ha perdido 4% en su actuación de las actas procesadas que supuestamente fueron impugnadas por LF para no favorecer a SV (pero no para perjudicarla). Esto es lo más extraño del caso. O sea, casí todos los porcentajes se han mantenido dentro de lo esperado y normal excepto el de Fuerza Social.

Una pregunta que se cae de madura es ¿a dónde se han ido los votos de SV? Definitivamente tienen que haberse colado entre todos los demás candidatos, pero ¿tantos votos? Recordemos que el siguiente partido en la lista, Restauración Nacional apenas llega al 7.783 %. Tal ves se podría hacer una película titulada ¿Y dónde esta mi voto? En mi post anterior resumía que para que LF gané tenía que mejorar su actuación en más del 4%. Al parecer esta sucediendo pero al revés. ¿Qué paso con los resultados de las encuestadoras a boca de urna? ¿No que SV ganaba con más del 40% de los votos válidos? ¿Pueden cometer un error tan grande todas las principales encuestadoras del país? Yo vote por LF pero definitivamente no me gustaría que gane de esta forma.

Saludos, Renzo

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