Un pequeño análisis electoral

En este pequeño análisis intentaré demostrar que es matemáticamente imposible, aunque la vida siempre suele darnos agradables sorpresas, que Lourdes Flores (LF) le gane a Susana Villarán (SV) en la contienda por el sillón municipal. Primero recordemos los siguientes datos: la cantidad de votos posibles de las actas contabilizadas hasta el momento en estas elecciones metropolitanas son de 4,339,798 los cuales estan representados por 31,455 (100%) actas electorales correspondientes a otras 31,455 (100%) mesas instaladas. No se dejo de instalar mesa alguna, lo cual habla por si mismo del excelente despliegue logístico de la ONPE.

En seguida revisamos que se emitieron 3,751,350 votos (91.301% de los votos posibles) de los cuales fueron considerados válidos 3,425,020 votos, descartandose los votos blancos, nulos e impugnados. Del universo de votos emitidos SV obtuvo 1,318,563 votos (35.149% de los votos emitidos) mientras que LF obtuvo 1,287,387 votos (34.318% de los votos emitidos) lo que nos lleva a una diferencia de tan solo 31,176 votos (0.83% de los votos emitidos). Utilizo como base los votos emitidos en vez de los votos válidos puesto que en estas elecciones no hay segunda vuelta y se gana por mayoría simple. La diferencia, como se aprecia es mínima y es menor aún que la que hubo entre Alan y Ollanta en las elecciones de 2006 en las que Ollanta llego a situarse a escasos 60,000 votos del líder aprista. Hay que recordar que si bien Ollanta recortó distancias, al final fue Alan el que se llevó una mayor cantidad de votos lo cual era algo natural y esperable en muestras de distribuciones uniformes y aleatorias como (casi) era el caso.

A continuación observamos que se impugnaron 8,384 actas lo cual, por regla de tres simple, representarían 1,156,728 votos. Estos votos son los que SV y LF estarían disputando palmo a palmo. Supongamos que de estos votos solo se considerarían válidos 91.301%, de manera similar al universo de votos emitidos, entonces nos quedarían 1,056,103 de votos válidos a repartir entre LF y SV. De todos estos votos válidos, un 18.874%, siempre aproximadamente y de acuerdo con los resultados de la muestra, se los llevarían los demás partidos políticos. Es decir 199,324 votos se irían a otras canteras que no serían ni de LF o SV, lo que dejaría por repartir 856,779 votos válidos. ¿Pero qué se necesita para que LF gane estas elecciones? Para simplificar un poco trataré de ponerlo en términos de ecuaciones de primer grado. Digamos que L son los votos que irían para LF y S son los votos que irían para SV, entonces tenemos nuestra primera ecuación:

L + S = 856,779

Pero queremos además que LF supere o al menos iguale con SV, lo cual nos lleva a la segunda ecuación:

L – S = 31,176


Me tome la molestia de resolver estas ecuaciones lo cual me llevo a las siguientes cifras:

L = 443,978

S = 412,802

Es decir que para que LF le gane a SV esta necesitaría al menos de 443,978 votos (38.382% de los votos impugnados) mientras que SV se debería quedar a los más con 412,802 votos (35.687% de los votos impugnados). Es decir LF tendría que mejorar su actuación en más de 4% respecto a como ha estado yendo hasta el momento dado un avance del 73.346% del total de actas procesadas. Esto estadísticamente es casi imposible.

Suerte para la próxima, Renzo

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