Teoria de los Juegos de los Empresarios

En medio de la crisis global que vivimos los gobiernos del mundo están adoptando medidas urgentes para evitar un mayor desastre financiero. Sin ir muy lejos EEUU ha inyectado 700 000 millones de dólares a su economía y proyectan inyectar otro tanto.
Los gobiernos coordinan respuestas conjuntas y aplican planes de salvataje estándar en medio de políticas de austeridad. Los empresarios por su parte buscan reducir sus costos. A veces sin embargo la cura resulta peor que la enfermedad y las soluciones a corto plazo pueden convertirse en un dolor de cabeza en el largo.

PAPEL HIGIENICO

Imaginemos el siguiente escenario: dos empresas A y B cada una con 100 empleados de distintos niveles. Los 100 empleados de A compran siempre productos de la empresa B y los 100 empleados de B compran siempre productos de la empresa A. Ambas empresas mantienen sus utilidades porque sus mercados son estables en el tiempo. Sin embargo un buen día los dueños de A leen en sus emails que se avecina una fuerte crisis financiera. Entonces como medida de precaución despiden a 20 empleados a fin de reducir sus costos. Al primer mes de aplicada la política de austeridad ven con satisfacción que si bien sus ingresos no han mejorado, sus utilidades si dado que han reducido sus costos fijos. Sin embargo para la empresa B el panorama es muy distinto. Los contadores de B habiendo sacado sus estados de pérdidas y ganancias descubren que la empresa ha reducido sus ganancias en un 20%. Debido a esto la empresa se encuentra sin liquidez y se le dificulta pagar la planilla de 20 de sus empleados. Felizmente tienen algunos ahorros y logran cumplir con las obligaciones laborales, a pesar de los cual se ven en la necesidad de despedir a 40 de sus empleados para mantener su margen de utilidad.

El segundo mes del experimento tenemos un resultado muy distinto. Esta vez los contadores de la empresa B son los que se felicitan entre si por haber sugerido el despido de 40 de sus empleados para salvar la empresa y no solo eso, ahora la empresa mejoro su rentabilidad. Del otro lado de la moneda se encuentra la empresa A cuyos dueños no saben cómo salvar la situación que se vislumbra muy grave dado que a pesar de sus estrictas medidas de ahorro sus utilidades han disminuido sensiblemente.

Durante días los dueños de la empresa A discuten un nuevo recorte de personal. Saben que van a tener que despedir a 60 empleados para mantener sus márgenes y al mismo tiempo preparase para la crisis que se avecina. Eso significa también quedarse con el personal mínimo indispensable. Lo cual significa que si la medida no funciona la quiebra sería inminente. Pese a todo esto finalmente los dueños de A deciden el último gran recorte de personal. A fin del tercer mes respiran aliviados. Los números en azul les han devuelto la confianza y ven con mayor optimismo el panorama. Los contadores de B tratan de maquillar las cifras para evitar que sus cabezas rueden. Aguantan lo más que pueden los resultados. El jefe de ventas amigo de ellos les pide un mes más para tratar de rematar toda su mercadería y al menos cubrir sus costos. Todos los empleados despedidos tanto de A como de B compran en este 4to mes estas gangas. La empresa B al final de este 4to mes ha mantenido sus utilidades y a la empresa A le va muy bien dado que han mantenido sus ventas y reducido sus costos. Pero este 4to mes es el canto del cisne de ambas empresas. Al final del quinto mes los resultados son terribles. La empresa B al apreciar una mayor demanda de su producto por parte de los empleados despedidos, se arriesga por un producto económico para ganar mercado. Pero ya los empleados despedidos no pueden comprar nada más y las ventas y utilidades de B caen estrepitosamente. B se declara en quiebra. Ahora A tendrá que empezar a rematar sus productos porque nadie tiene poder adquisitivo en ese momento. Finalmente A quiebra también.

Este pequeño ejemplo actúa en forma de una teoría auto cumplida. Los empresarios al ver peligrar sus utilidades reducen sus costos fijos despidiendo personal. Si todo el resto de empresarios hace lo mismo la población no va a poder comprar los productos de todos los demás. Se crearía un efecto de bola de nieve que acabaría con la quiebra de muchas empresas.
La única oportunidad es que todos los empresarios se pongan de acuerdo y no despidan a sus empleados. De hacerlo así posiblemente la economía se recuperaría más rápidamente en una recesión. El gobierno en este caso tendría que apoyar principalmente a las empresas más sensibles (inmobiliarias, tecnológicas, de diversión, etc.). Y los empresarios arriegarse a mantener a su personal.

Si tu fueras empresario, te arriesgarías?

Renzo

Puntuación: 5.00 / Votos: 2
Publicado en Teoría de Juegos a la(s) 09:57 el día martes 20 enero por
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  1. La Maga escribió:

    NO, no me arriesgo ps ni k fuera loko! ¿kien lo haria? no?, pero… donde keda la sensibilidad humana? donde keda toda esa gente?!!
    empresarios: y? k hago?… me arriego? nooo pierdo!!!
    conclusion: todos nos convertimos en unos pinches egoistas!

  2. luis alberto chavesta escribió:

    todo buen empresario siempre es un poco egoista como dice "la maga". Ahora.. yo, lo haria dependiendo de las espectativas en las que mis contadores hayan analizado del mercado… esta situacion es muy complicada ya que frente a una gran crisis nadie sabe nada, hasta el mejor economista diria: "solo mantengamos la calma, porque de lo contrario creariamos una especulacion en la que no sabriamos en que acabaria
    /// yo, en particular, solo arriesgaria el primer mes, mantendria mi personal.. porque si despido, desde aca ya estoy empezando a crear una espectativa negativa,aprovechando tambien las negativas de mi competencia. luego avaluaria que tan mal o bien, ha ido mi estado de perididas y ganncias, caso favorable continuaria sin despido, caso contraio empiezo despidiendo…

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