Teoría de los Juegos del Fin del Mundo

La Teoría de los Juegos ha logrado una aplicación muy especial en las ciencias biológicas y también en las medidas de protección al medio ambiente. Sus predicciones nos permiten anticiparnos a sucesos o formas de comportamiento humano (o animal). A continuación el escenario siguiente nos coloca entre la espada y la pared.

Normalmente la población de peces en el mar depende de la cantidad de alimento disponible. Imaginemos una población pequeña con abundante comida. Dicha población tenderá a crecer año tras año hasta que el alimento empiece a escasear. En ese momento sucederá una crisis de alimentos, lo que llevará a que la población disminuya dramáticamente. Este proceso se da naturalmente sin la intervención del hombre de tal forma que habrán años en que la población marina sea muy abundante y años en que los que no.

Con la intervención del hombre el panorama se torna muy distinto. La Teoría de los Juegos predice que el hombre, sin controles de por medio, tenderá a depredar la población marina hasta extingirla. Se trata de un supuesto muy simple pero efectivo. Imaginemos que somos dueños de una pequeña flota de barcos y queremos, como casi todas las demás flotas maximizar nuestras utilidades (a corto plazo). Esto implica intentar capturar la mayor cantidad de peces comerciales en el menor tiempo posible. Si todos las demás flotas se guían por este principio (y en la realidad es lo que sucede) y existen suficientes flotas, la población de peces para las próximas temporadas mermará dramáticamente.

Sin embargo en la pesca como en otros ámbitos de la vida todo tiene su límite y así lo ha demostrado la historia muchas veces. Sin ir muy lejos aquí en el Perú entre los años 1972 y 1973 la industria pesquera entró en crisis debido a la captura indiscriminada de la anchoveta. Las consecuencias fueron catastróficas no solo para la industria de harina de pescado si no para la producción de guano de isla (!). Adivinen de quién se alimentaban las aves guaneras?

Ante estos sucesos los estados intervinieron definiendo una cuota máxima de captura y épocas de veda lo que aseguró que la industria sobreviva en el tiempo.

PLANETA

Pero qué sucede con el mundo? O mejor dicho qué sucede con nuestros recursos naturales? Es posible que el hombre reaccione a tiempo para evitar una crisis mundial de recursos? O vivirá como el ratón del libro pensando que su queso durará eternamente? Extendiendo la aplicación de la teoría de los juegos a un panorama global no topamos con un pronóstico muy sombrío debido sobre todo a dos factores:

1. El crecimiento de la población mundial
2. Consumo irracional de los recursos naturales

Ambos factores nos llevarán irremediablemente a una crisis mundial (posiblemente a una tercera guerra mundial) y a una disminución dramática de la población (como los peces!). Y no soy pesimista al respecto.

Se puede revertir esta situación? Difícil pero no imposible. Lo primero que se debe hacer es detener el crecimiento poblacional mundial. Es necesario y urgente aplicar medidas de planificación familiar extrictas y severas. Aunque algunos postulan que ya se cruzo la frontera de no retorno, aun así vale la pena hacer el esfuerzo, no creen?

Y lo segundo es aplicar mejores y efectivas políticas medio ambientales y sobre los recursos naturales a nivel global. Pensar de otra forma es ilusorio e ingenuo. Nuestro mundo esta muriendo y con el nosotros y nuestros hijos.

Renzo

Puntuación: 3.00 / Votos: 10

Comentarios

  1. La Maga escribió:

    oe tannnto escribes??.. ojala yo pudiera!! dahh ja
    avcs pienso k te lo bajas de algun lado. 😛
    y por eso digo… viva el Chino Cara..
    (tu ya savs a k me refiero no?)
    ok, no hijos no!!!

  2. antonio escribió:

    hola mira para que juegues

  3. Jhacotp Anthony tocas puicon escribió:

    este juego es sensacional tienes que destruir la tierra primero comienzas con meteoritos luego con uracanes y tornados despues con microbombas luego con volcanes y despues con invasion de extraterrestres

  4. jimi escribió:

    ola tengomiedo de findelmundo

  5. La Maga escribió:

    ayy yo tmb… abuuu no kiero fin del mundo no, por cierto.. k chunfliras kise decir con el chino y no se k mas? jajjaja

  6. marcelo escribió:

    yo digo que no ba benir el fin del mundo si disen que en el 2.022

  7. tuhombre escribió:

    hey marcelo no seas asno como vas a escribir venir con B grande que tal rebusno

  8. Pedro escribió:

    Pero esto no es tanto cuestión de la teoría de juegos como de la sistemica. Se trata del ya conocido equilibrio cazador-presa. Este equilibrio da un sistema osccilante, cuando se produce en sistemas naturales, pero cuando se produce en sistemas humanos, consumidor-recursos da un sistema que primero se desarrolla cuasi exponencialmente y fialmente colapsa. Lo que se puede esperar es que la población mundial colapse y se pseudo-estabillice de nuevo con una población un 1% de la máxima. Pero si esto os parece malo, de lo que viene despues prefiero no hablar.

  9. Pedro escribió:

    Por cierto, si os interesa el estudio del equilibrio cadador-presa, os aconsejo que busqueis la E.D. de Lotka-Volterra. Es estudio matematico ya hace tiempo que está resuelto.

  10. renzo-gutierrez Autor escribió:

    Excelente aporte Pedro, me he puesto a revisar a Lotka-Volterra y en verdad que la cosa esta muy interesante. Se podría decir que se trata de la aplicación de la teoría de los juegos dinámicamente, revisando la realidad después de cada etapa. Un abrazo y prometo un post al respecto.

    Slds

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